October CPI odds cluster on 3.7 percent inflation

After a hot jobs report, inflation is the next number that could move the Fed. October CPI odds on Polymarket point to a repeat of September's 3.7% annual rate when the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the data on November 10.

What happened

Polymarket's contract on 12-month inflation for October priced the 3.7% bucket at 87% at 08:23 MSK on Nov. 7, with 3.8% at about 9% and 3.6% at about 2%. A separate market on the core index priced a 2.6% annual reading at about 90%. On the monthly change, traders split between 0.3% at about 43% and 0.2% at about 34%.

The September report set the baseline. BLS said consumer prices rose 0.6% in September on a seasonally adjusted basis and 3.7% over 12 months, up from 3.4% in August. Gasoline jumped 9.1% in the month and accounted for over half of the increase, and energy prices were up 20.4% from a year earlier. Core prices, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% on the month and 2.6% on the year. Shelter rose 0.4% in September after 0.3% in August, while the food index was flat on the month and up 2.5% from a year earlier.

The BLS release calendar lists the October report for November 10 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time.

Why it matters

The Fed is already leaning toward tightening. CNBC said fed funds futures priced a more than 77% chance of a quarter-point hike at the December 9 meeting after Friday's payrolls, up from more than 66% a day earlier, with the target range at 3.75% to 4.00%. A print above 3.7% would reinforce that path, while a softer number would give doves room to argue for patience.

Concentrated October CPI odds also tell us something about the market itself: traders see little chance of a big surprise, so a miss in either direction could move rates and crypto sharply. Our September CPI coverage showed how energy drove the last jump, and Fed December 25 bps hike odds remain tied to that path.

What's next

The report lands at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Tuesday, November 10. Watch gasoline and shelter, the two components that drove recent readings, and the core measure, which shapes how the Fed reads underlying pressure. Producer price and PCE data follow later in the month, but CPI is the first and most closely watched of the inflation releases that land before the December meeting.

The full set of October CPI odds is on Polymarket's October inflation market.

The call

We say U.S. annual CPI inflation for October 2026 will be reported at exactly 3.7% in the BLS release due November 10. Polymarket priced that Yes side at 87% at 08:23 MSK on Nov. 7. September's 3.7% reading and a narrow forecast range make a repeat the most likely outcome, though energy prices could still tip the rounding.