Anthropic IPO odds slip as valuation talk cools

Traders are still betting on the year's biggest listing, but they are less sure of the date. Anthropic IPO odds on Polymarket priced a Nasdaq debut on Friday, November 20, at 29% at 08:27 MSK on Nov. 8, after reports that big investors want a lower valuation following a sharp sell-off in AI stocks.

What happened

Three large investors planning to buy into the offering told The Wall Street Journal that the expected $1.5 trillion valuation would likely have to fall, with one suggesting a figure closer to $1 trillion, Decrypt reported. The company, which filed to list under the ticker ANT, had targeted pricing in the week ahead of Thanksgiving and a raise of as much as $100 billion; one investor said the raise could shrink to around $80 billion. CNBC reported that investors now see a target of $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion, down from the $2 trillion floated in recent months.

Market prices reflect that caution. Polymarket's contract on Anthropic not listing by November 30 traded at 22%, and in its valuation market a range of $1.25 trillion to $1.50 trillion was the favorite at 51%, with below $1.25 trillion at 11%. These date contracts are thin, so prices can move on modest orders. On Kalshi, which lists contracts on when Anthropic formally confirms an IPO, the probability of confirmation before December 1 fell 15 points to 59% on Friday, Decrypt reported.

Why it matters

Anthropic IPO odds have become a gauge of risk appetite for the whole AI trade. The Nasdaq on Thursday suffered its steepest one-day drop in 19 months, and the sell-off followed midterms in which, according to CNBC, local voters rejected data center measures in 40 of 41 cases and more than half of voters in an NBC News exit poll called data centers a crucial or major factor. Democrats are preparing bills on data center power costs, independent testing of advanced AI and liability, Reuters reported, and plan closer scrutiny of leading labs including Anthropic, although such bills would struggle to become law with Trump in office.

The fundamentals remain large. Anthropic's revenue was running above $80 billion a year by late October and it held $146.6 billion in cash at September 30, the Journal reported, while its amended S-1 disclosed about $895.4 billion of committed spending, mostly on compute. Our earlier report on the $1.5 trillion valuation target shows how quickly expectations have reset.

What's next

The Journal said executives and advisers plan to meet over the next few days to work through terms. A filed price range would settle the valuation debate and likely move every date contract at once. PitchBook analyst Nalin Patel told The Telegraph that a postponement would become more likely if the correction persists.

Anthropic IPO odds by date are live on Polymarket.