Alaska Senate Peltola odds hold near 72–73% on Election Day
Alaska Senate Peltola contracts on Polymarket price Democrat Mary Peltola near 72.5% against Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan at about 27.5% as Alaska votes, with ranked-choice counting likely to delay a final call.
One of the Senate seats that can still move the national map is being priced as a clear, if not landslide, Democratic lean. Alaska Senate Peltola markets on Polymarket put former House member Mary Peltola near 72.5% Yes against incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan near 27.5% into Election Day.
What happened
Polymarket's gamma feed showed the Peltola contract with roughly $444,000 of liquidity and about $1.52 million of volume, with an end time of 2026-11-04T04:59Z. Sullivan's parallel contract mirrored those odds. PolyKal's midterms snapshot around 03:40 UTC on November 3 put Polymarket at 72.5% for the Democratic side in Alaska versus about 69.5% on Kalshi, a small cross-venue gap.
GamingToday's election-eve Senate roundup had Peltola ahead in the polling average by under two points, with market prices in the low-to-mid 70s depending on the venue. It also flagged Alaska's ranked-choice voting, with tabulation cited for November 18, so the certified winner may not be known on election night. That lag means first-choice leads can look decisive on television while second-choice transfers are still unpaid and uncounted in the official stack.
The seat sits inside a wider map where markets already favor Democrats in several competitive contests. GamingToday priced Democratic candidates ahead in Alaska, Maine, Ohio and Texas in the high-60s to low-70s range on the eve of the vote.
Why it matters
Alaska matters beyond its electoral vote because ranked-choice systems break the usual election-night narrative. A market that looks settled at 70%+ can still sit unresolved while second-choice ballots are counted, which is why settlement windows on prediction venues stretch past November 3.
National chamber prices already lean Democratic, as our midterm prediction market odds coverage of Senate races laid out, so a Peltola win would reinforce rather than rewrite the base case. A Sullivan hold would be a clearer surprise against the tape.
Cross-checks still help. Our Iowa Senate odds piece showed how quickly a 52-48 state market can tighten in the final weekend; Alaska's wider market gap looks more stable, but the polling average is much closer than the contracts.
Alaska Senate Peltola pricing also tests whether traders overweight early Election Day leads in a state that often reports slowly and then reshuffles under ranked choice.
What's next
Watch first-choice tallies on election night, then the November ranked-choice tabulation GamingToday highlighted. GamingToday's Senate odds roundup compares polls and market prices race by race.
If those contracts stay near the low 70s through Tuesday, the residual risk is less about direction than about how long settlement takes once ranked-choice counting begins.
Polymarket resolves the race once AP, Fox News and NBC agree on a winner, or on official certification if those calls diverge.
The call
We say Mary Peltola will win the Alaska Senate race in 2026. Polymarket's "Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?" market priced Yes at 73% at 08:31 MSK on Nov. 3, with hundreds of thousands of dollars of liquidity. The listed end date is 2026-11-04, but Alaska's ranked-choice process can push a conclusive media call and market resolution past election night. Alaska Senate Peltola odds already embed a clear lean; the open question is timing, not which side traders favor.
This article is for information only and is not investment advice. Calls are editorial forecasts, logged with market odds at the time of publication and kept on the record.