Maryland election betting tops $1.1 million despite a state ban

A state that outlaws wagers on elections is watching its own races trade like stocks. Maryland election betting on federally regulated prediction markets has passed $1.1 million ahead of Tuesday's vote, according to a Baltimore Sun analysis reported by Fox Baltimore, testing how far state law reaches into CFTC-supervised exchanges.

What happened

The Sun's figure covers Kalshi and Polymarket's international platform and excludes smaller venues and Polymarket's separate U.S. exchange, which does not publish comparable volumes, Fox Baltimore said. A separate count by RG found Polymarket's 20 Maryland markets had recorded about $599,500 of volume by about 9:15 a.m. ET on Sunday.

The busiest single market was Polymarket's 1st Congressional District winner contract at about $98,800, RG reported, with Republican Rep. Andy Harris priced near 86.5% against about 12% for Democrat Dan Schwartz. The governor's race drew about $30,500, with Gov. Wes Moore near 99%.

Kalshi reports contracts rather than dollars. Its governor market showed about 303,000 contracts traded, roughly 199,000 of them on Republican nominee Dan Cox at about 1 cent, which means, RG noted, that contract tallies exaggerate the money actually staked on long shots.

Why it matters

The legal tension is direct. Maryland Election Law section 16-902 says a person "may not make a bet or wager on the outcome of an election". Violations are misdemeanors with fines of $50 to $500, and money deposited as an election bet is forfeited to the county, RG said. Back in March, the State Board of Elections cautioned that taking part in prediction markets "may still conflict with state law".

Enforcement has not followed so far. State Elections Administrator Jared DeMarinis referred the question of whether the contracts break state law to the State Prosecutor's office in July. Two days before the vote, prosecutors declined to say if they had done anything, Fox Baltimore reported. The board has barred its own members, staff, election judges and contractors from trading such contracts.

Other states are moving more aggressively. Utah has filed criminal charges against Kalshi and its founders, as our Utah Kalshi criminal charges report described. National midterm markets are far larger, as our midterm prediction market odds story showed, but local races are where state laws bite hardest.

Maryland election betting is not unusual in volume terms, but the state's explicit statutory ban makes it a cleaner legal test than most. Maryland election betting also shows how contract counts can mislead, since many trades sit on long shots priced at a cent.

What's next

Results on Tuesday night will settle most of these contracts quickly. RG's breakdown of the Maryland markets lists volumes race by race.

The bigger question is what Maryland does afterwards: if prosecutors act on Maryland election betting once the votes are counted, it would open another front in the fight over who regulates event contracts.

The call

We say Republicans hold Maryland's 1st Congressional District. Polymarket's "Will the Republican Party win the MD-01 House seat?" market priced Yes at 87% at 08:22 MSK on Nov. 2, with about $33,600 of liquidity in the market. The vote is on November 3, though the market formally resolves only once House races are conclusively called, so settlement could lag election night. The seat is held by Republican Rep. Andy Harris, and RG's Sunday snapshot showed traders pricing him at roughly 86.5%.