Prediction market donations top $5 million as Kalshi and Polymarket lobby
Kalshi, Polymarket and their founders have given at least $5 million to political groups this cycle, while Congress opened another line of questions about their customer rewards.
Prediction market donations have arrived in American politics. Between them, Kalshi, Polymarket and the people who founded them have put at least $5 million into Republican and Democratic groups this cycle, Reuters reported on Thursday, Oct. 22, after reviewing campaign finance filings and a private remittance record.
What happened
Republicans received $2.7 million and Democrats the rest. Just over a third went to state-level committees supporting candidates for governor, attorney general and legislative seats, the Center for Political Accountability found. The total is small next to crypto or sports betting, but a sharp jump from 2024.
The figures include a previously unreported $1 million that Blockratize Inc, which operates Polymarket, sent this summer to House Majority Forward, a nonprofit that backs Democrats and does not disclose donors. Polymarket and chief executive Shayne Coplan also directed about $1.3 million to Republican committees, including the RNC and a super PAC backing Vivek Ramaswamy in Ohio.
Kalshi founders Luana Lopes Lara and Tarek Mansour had given at least $1 million by early October, about 72% to Republicans, Reuters said. Kalshi has given nearly $1.5 million to state-level groups, split roughly evenly, and Polymarket nearly $250,000.
Why it matters
The money follows the fights. State gaming regulators, attorneys general and tribes have sued to stop sports contracts, arguing they are gambling under state law, while the companies say they are federally regulated financial products. "If you're not engaging with these politicians, other people are going to be writing these regulations," said University of Rochester professor David Primo.
Kalshi's John Bivona said its full disclosures would show donations "roughly evenly distributed across both parties." Polymarket said it engages "with all sides of the debate."
Scrutiny is growing at the same time. On Thursday, Sen. Richard Blumenthal and Reps. Paul Tonko and Valerie Foushee sent letters to Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, Fanatics, BetMGM and Caesars asking for details of VIP rewards by Nov. 5, The Philadelphia Inquirer reported. Kalshi said it manages top traders "by volume" and does not target customers who lose. These prediction market donations echo the crypto industry's playbook, seen in our Fairshake Ohio Senate spending report, and come amid suits such as Utah's case against Kalshi.
What's next
The VIP letters build on months of pressure over sportsbook rewards, including FanDuel's use of personalised athlete videos, the Inquirer said. Polymarket's own marketing has drawn attention too: in September it signed a $15 million endorsement deal with LeBron James. "There definitely is a membership structure in which larger contributions get you greater access," said Jeanne Hanna of the Center for Political Accountability, describing the state-level groups.
The Reuters report, syndicated on Yahoo Finance, says prediction market donations to state-level groups have sped up over the past 12 months. Election Day is Nov. 3.
Federal action is the bigger risk. On Polymarket, a law banning sports prediction markets being signed in 2026 was priced at 18% as of 08:29 MSK on Oct. 23, in a thin market.
This article is for information only and is not investment advice.