Bitwise bitcoin forecast rises to $1.6 million by 2036

A bruising year has not dented Bitwise's long-term view. The Bitwise bitcoin forecast published on Wednesday puts the price at $1.6 million by 2036, up from the $1.3 million target in last year's report, which works out to a compound annual return of 34.3%.

What happened

The 2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report starts from a price of $83,557 on Sept. 30, CoinMarketCap reported. Its bear case ends the decade at $130,686, or 4.6% a year, while the bull case reaches about $3.67 million. Bitwise models average volatility of 27.8% and a 0.43 correlation with US stocks.

The firm, which manages $14 billion in client assets, compares that with 6.7% a year for US equities and 10.8% for private equity, the next-best asset class in its model. The core argument is supply and demand: institutions control about $147 trillion, citing a World Bank estimate, and an allocation of 1% to 5% would imply $1.5 trillion to $7 trillion of demand, against roughly $14 billion of newly mined bitcoin a year.

Chief investment officer Matt Hougan said the same model with updated data produced the higher number, mainly because the markets bitcoin could capture are bigger, Crypto Briefing reported. "We are more bullish on bitcoin today than we were last year," he said.

The bigger target comes mostly from bigger markets. Bitwise now projects the global store-of-value market will reach about $110 trillion within a decade, up from a prior estimate of $91 trillion, and it lifted the institutional investment market to $303 trillion from $216 trillion, Crypto Briefing said. Last year's report implied a 28.3% annual return. "All signs point to these swings weakening as institutional adoption deepens," head of research Ryan Rasmussen said.

Why it matters

The timing is notable. The report cites a 50% fall from the October 2025 peak to the June 2026 low, which Bitwise calls painful but shallower than past cycle drawdowns of 86%, 84% and 77%. Bitcoin was near $81,300 on Wednesday on Crypto Briefing's market ticker, close to the level in our report on bitcoin's Fed jitters, so the Bitwise bitcoin forecast assumes a long climb from here.

Bitwise manages crypto funds, so its target is best read as one manager's model. Its report lists quantum computing, AI-driven mathematical advances and regulatory reversal as the largest risks. Other houses are far more cautious on shorter horizons, as shown by the Citi bitcoin price target. None of this is investment advice, and the bear case alone shows how wide the range is.

What's next

The Bitwise bitcoin forecast expects the four-year cycle to weaken as the investor base becomes more institutional, but still describes bitcoin as volatile and cyclical. The full report is on Bitwise's website.