Bitcoin Fed jitters keep BTC pinned near $80,000 as IBIT draws cash

Stocks found a reason to rally on Monday; crypto did not. Bitcoin Fed jitters kept the largest cryptocurrency stuck around $80,000 as traders trimmed exposure ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision, where the focus is less on the rate itself than on what Chair Kevin Warsh says about December.

What happened

Bitcoin fell nearly 2% to about $79,800 during Monday's Asian session, CoinDesk reported, before steadying near $80,400 after a dip to around $79,300. Ether dropped nearly 3% to just above $2,300, XRP lost about 3% to $1.28 and SOL slid 2% to barely $100. TRX was the only major token in the green.

The Fed raised rates in September, and CME's FedWatch tool showed a 90% chance of no change this week alongside roughly an 80% chance of another increase in December, according to CoinDesk. "We're watching how strongly the chair hints at a December hike — that's what matters for crypto," Jeff Mei, chief operating officer at BTSE, told the outlet.

Fund flows offered a small counterweight. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs took in $110.3 million on Monday, all of it into BlackRock's IBIT, with every other tracked fund flat, according to Farside Investors data. That followed outflows of $635.6 million on Oct. 22 and $137.9 million on Oct. 23.

Why it matters

Corporate buyers were split. Strategy's Monday filing showed no bitcoin purchases in the prior week, leaving it at 848,517 BTC, while it spent $204.9 million repurchasing its STRC preferred stock, The Crypto Basic reported. Strive, by contrast, added 6,182 BTC at an average of about $82,732 to reach 43,000 BTC.

Derivatives traders are paying up for protection. The busiest bitcoin option on Monday was the Oct. 28 $77,000 put, and one-month skew still favored puts at about 12.5%, CoinDesk said, though that was down from about 14.5% a day earlier. Futures open interest rose 0.85% to $139.9 billion while liquidations fell 71% to $153 million, a sign of a market waiting rather than panicking. Funding rates were mildly positive across major tokens, so leverage demand looked ordinary rather than stretched.

The pattern repeats the weekend selloff below $80,000 and the ETF stress we described when flows pushed below the average ETF cost basis. Bitcoin Fed jitters also track oil: Brent fell about 2% from a six-month high after President Donald Trump said it was getting to be decision time on Iran.

What's next

According to CoinDesk, buyers need a move back above $82,500, a level that gave way last Thursday, before this week's weakness can be read as a pause. Beyond Wednesday's decision, U.S. third-quarter GDP and September PCE inflation are due Thursday, and Coinbase, Strategy and Robinhood report earnings this week. Until Warsh speaks, Bitcoin Fed jitters are likely to keep ranges tight. Live context is in CoinDesk's market report.