Robinhood crypto revenue falls 55% as prediction markets bring in $173 million

Robinhood's third quarter showed where its customers went. Robinhood crypto revenue fell 55% from a year earlier to $120 million, while event contracts, its prediction markets business, generated $173 million, a more than sixfold jump on a year earlier.

What happened

Total net revenue rose 12% to $1.42 billion, the company said. Transaction-based revenue grew 19% to $867 million, with options up 31% to $399 million and equities up 41% to $121 million. Net income fell 14% to $476 million and diluted earnings per share dropped 16% to $0.51, short of the 56 cents analysts expected, according to LSEG data cited by CNBC. Shares fell about 4% to 5% after hours.

Total crypto volume dropped 38% to $50 billion: $21 billion came through the app and $29 billion through Bitstamp, CoinDesk reported. The crypto figure still beat Street forecasts of $114.1 million, but it now makes up just 8.4% of revenue, against roughly 21% a year earlier.

Robinhood Chain handled more than $80 billion of decentralized exchange trading and chain fees above $50 million in its first quarter on mainnet, CoinDesk said, noting those fees are separate from reported crypto revenue.

Why it matters

The mix is shifting fast. Prediction markets have become a core product, a trend we saw in the surge of 15-minute crypto contracts. CFO Shiv Verma told CNBC that event contracts on crypto price moves did well even as spot trading slowed, giving customers another way to take a view on crypto.

The rest of the platform kept growing. Funded customers rose 7% to 28.7 million, total platform assets climbed 19% to $396 billion, and Gold subscribers reached a record 5.2 million. Net deposits were $15.7 billion in the quarter. Robinhood is also preparing perpetual futures for eligible U.S. customers, building on the crypto perpetuals it runs via Bitstamp in Europe.

Other lines are filling the gap. Other revenues rose 61% to $142 million, driven by Trump Account service revenue and Gold subscriptions, the release said. The Gold Card reached 1.3 million customers with more than $19 billion of annualized payment volume, Robinhood Banking held nearly $5 billion of deposits, and Robinhood Strategies passed $2 billion in assets. Adjusted net income, a new non-GAAP measure, slipped 3% to $550 million. The weaker Robinhood crypto revenue is now a smaller share of a broader business.

What's next

Robinhood said it has authorization from the Dubai Financial Services Authority and plans to start rolling out products there in 2027. Whether Robinhood crypto revenue recovers will depend on fourth-quarter prices and volumes, while event contracts face ongoing state legal challenges flagged in the company's risk factors. The full numbers are in the third-quarter release filed with the SEC.