Israel election deadlock leaves Netanyahu and Eisenkot blocs tied at 51 seats
Exit polls give both camps 51 of the Knesset's 120 seats, ten short of a majority, with record turnout, a surge for Arab parties and about 600,000 special ballots still to be counted on Thursday.
Israelis woke up on Wednesday without a winner. The Israel election deadlock is stark: exit polls give Benjamin Netanyahu's governing bloc and the opposition camp led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot 51 seats each in the 120-seat Knesset, ten short of the 61 needed to govern, and a large chunk of the vote has not yet been counted.
What happened
Updated projections from public broadcaster Kan and Channel 13 showed the two blocs level, while Channel 12 gave Netanyahu's side 52 seats against 49 for Eisenkot's, the BBC reported. The first exit polls on Tuesday night had put Eisenkot's "Change Bloc" ahead with 52 to 53 seats against 50, before the gap closed overnight. Likud was still projected to be the largest single party.
Turnout reached 77.7% at the 22:00 close of voting, a level not seen at that hour since 1999, according to the Central Elections Committee as quoted by the BBC. The Guardian said just over 30% of votes had been tabulated by early morning. Around 600,000 ballots cast at special polling stations, mostly by soldiers and about 10% of the total, will not be fully counted until Thursday.
The two Arab parties, the United Arab List and the Joint List, were on course for a record 18 or 19 seats; the Guardian noted they held 10 before. Netanyahu, speaking after 3am in Jerusalem, said Likud was the largest party and called for a "strong, right-wing national government" that does not rely on Palestinian parties. Eisenkot told supporters in Tel Aviv that the public had voted against Netanyahu and described him as "a caretaker prime minister, without a mandate or the people's trust."
Why it matters
Prediction markets sit right in the middle of the uncertainty. Polymarket's contract on who becomes Israel's next prime minister priced Netanyahu at 52% and Eisenkot at 33% as of 08:22 MSK on Oct. 28, close to a coin flip. We saw how fast such odds can swing in our coverage of the Brazil election odds flip last week.
The economic stakes run through Iran. Netanyahu hinted again that he was prepared to join Donald Trump in a third round of strikes on Iran, the Guardian reported, while Eisenkot warned him not to "use Israel's security" for political ends. Crude rose more than 1% in Asian trading as results came in, with Brent at $115.61 a barrel, AFP said. The outgoing government had also been pushing ideas such as the blockchain sanctions plan that the Bank of Israel rejected.
What's next
Once results are final, the president consults every faction and invites the leader with the best chance of building a coalition, a process that could take weeks; if it fails, Israel goes back to the polls, the BBC explained. The Guardian said Eisenkot might have to negotiate with the Arab parties or try a minority government. Until a new cabinet is sworn in, the Israel election deadlock leaves Netanyahu in office.
The call
We say Netanyahu will still be prime minister when 2026 ends. Polymarket's "Netanyahu out by end of 2026?" market priced No at 83% at 08:22 MSK on Oct. 28. With the blocs tied, special ballots pending and coalition talks likely to drag on for weeks, the Israel election deadlock makes a handover before January look unlikely, though a fast Eisenkot coalition would break this call.
This article is for information only and is not investment advice. Calls are editorial forecasts, logged with market odds at the time of publication and kept on the record.