Intel Q4 guide sinks shares more than 20% after a beat

A beat was not enough once the outlook landed. The Intel Q4 guide pointed to $15 billion to $16 billion of revenue and 25 cents of adjusted EPS, far below the $17.1 billion and 43 cents Wall Street wanted, and shares plunged more than 20% after hours.

What happened

Third-quarter revenue was $16.51 billion, up 21% from $13.7 billion a year earlier and essentially in line with the $16.5 billion estimate. Adjusted EPS was 52 cents versus 40 cents expected, CNBC said. Data center and AI revenue jumped 78% to $7.3 billion, while the client computing and physical AI group fell 5% to $8.1 billion.

CFO David Zinsner said the PC slowdown should continue at least through the first half of next year. An explosion at a fab in Israel earlier this month will cost about $600 million in lost revenue over two quarters and caused an extended shutdown that hit 10-nanometer shipments, management said on the call.

The stock had already been down roughly 23% in October after a roughly 150% year-to-date run into the print, CNBC noted, as investors questioned the broader AI buildout even before this guide.

Tan said Intel remains in high-volume production of 18A at its Arizona fab and expects a couple of external foundry customers to be announceable over the next two quarters. Those comments did little to offset the PC and fab-hit guide.

Intel's year-to-date rally had priced a cleaner turn in foundry and AI CPU demand. A guide this far below consensus resets that narrative in one session and puts the burden of proof back on named external customers and a stable PC trajectory into 2027.

Why it matters

The Intel Q4 guide turns a supposed AI-CPU recovery story back into a PC-cycle story. That is a different problem from the software Fortinet stock plunge, but it hits the same nerve: near-term demand is not matching the narrative. Memory and foundry peers are also on watch after Samsung's record profit print.

CEO Lip-Bu Tan said he was disappointed Intel could not meet strong customer demand this quarter, a sign supply and fab disruption mattered as much as soft PCs.

Agentic AI demand for CPUs was supposed to be the offset to GPU-centric narratives. A guide this weak says that offset is not large enough yet to carry the stock through a PC recession.

What's next

AMD reports next week and Nvidia in mid-November; both will set the tone for how much of this is Intel-specific. The Intel Q4 guide details are in CNBC's earnings wrap.

Watch AMD's print and any update on the Israel fab restart timeline for clues on how long the $600 million revenue hit lasts.

Foundry credibility remains a multi-year story that cannot rescue a two-quarter PC and fab shock. Until external 18A customers are named and shipping, the market will keep treating Intel as a cyclical semiconductor name with an option on manufacturing revival.