Bitcoin below $81,000 after hot CPI print

CoinDesk data put Bitcoin below $81,000 in Thursday Asian hours after Wednesday's hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation print revived debate over whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates again at its Oct. 27–28 meeting. The largest cryptocurrency traded near $81,200 after dipping close to $80,000 earlier in the session, CoinDesk data showed, leaving the complex sensitive to every shift in rate odds.

What happened

CoinDesk reported bitcoin down more than 2% over 24 hours, with ether near $2,370 and XRP and solana off roughly 3.5% to 4%. South Korea's Kospi plunged about 8% and tripped circuit breakers, while Nasdaq futures extended Wednesday's drop. Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Wednesday showed the consumer price index up 0.6% on the month and 3.7% over 12 months, with core CPI at 2.6% year over year.

Decrypt timed an earlier post-print slide that took bitcoin about 1.5% lower toward $82,100 as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed near 5.3% and the two-year yield jumped about 10 basis points toward 4.9%. Polymarket's probability of an October rate hike briefly spiked near 50% after the release before easing toward about 30%, CoinDesk said, while CME FedWatch showed a similar spike from roughly 22% toward 47% before retreating near 26%.

Giottus CEO Vikram Subburaj told CoinDesk that stronger inflation data renewed higher-for-longer concerns and that U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $150.5 million of outflows on Oct. 14, reversing the prior day's inflow. PYTH was the only top-100 token CoinDesk flagged as still up more than 7% in that window, underscoring how narrow leadership became once the inflation surprise hit. STS Digital's Anderson told CoinDesk the next FOMC looks like a coin flip that damages liquidity across asset classes, while still expecting the Fed to hold this month in line with futures pricing a better-than-70% chance of no change.

Decrypt also noted more than $281 million in crypto derivatives liquidations in a shorter post-print window, mostly from long positions. That forced selling helped turn Wednesday's CPI reaction into Thursday's Asian follow-through, with bitcoin unable to hold the brief bounce toward $81,500 that CoinDesk described after the early dip toward $80,000.

Why it matters

The session matters less as a round-number scare than as a liquidity test after a week that already featured large futures liquidations and choppy ETF flows. When hike odds jump on an inflation surprise, dollar and yield pressure compete with a non-yielding asset, and leveraged books amplify the move. Decrypt's earlier tape showed ether dropping about 2.8% toward $2,440, a reminder that beta assets can overshoot bitcoin when open interest is rebuilt after a flush—and why Bitcoin below $81,000 still frames the tape.

The print keeps energy and Middle East supply risk inside the inflation debate. Gasoline's monthly surge drove much of the headline CPI jump, so oil markets remain a second channel for crypto risk appetite even when core services inflation is the Fed's preferred focus. A 10-year yield near multi-decade highs also raises the bar for any discretionary allocation into spot bitcoin wrappers after Tuesday's creation rebound failed to stick through the CPI session.

Anderson's point about a coin-flip FOMC is the practical market constraint: when the next policy meeting is two-way, market makers widen spreads and pull risk, which shows up first in crypto perpetual funding and then in spot ETF creations. That is a different stress channel from a pure liquidation cascade, but it compounds when both arrive in the same 48 hours.

What's next

Traders will watch Thursday's producer price index and any follow-through in Fed speak before the late-October FOMC, with Bitcoin below $81,000 still the near-term reference level. Spot ETF flow prints for the rest of the week will show whether Oct. 14's redemption day was a one-session reversal of Tuesday's inflow or the start of another outflow streak. A sustained hold in Fed funds futures would ease the immediate rate scare; a re-acceleration in hike odds would keep bitcoin pinned near the $80,000 order-book shelf that exchange depth reports have flagged. For related coverage see Williams's no-2027-hike comments and the CPI week-ahead brief.

The call

Polymarket prices "Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?" with No near 66.5% as of the odds fetch for this batch. We call No: bitcoin will NOT reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026. Hot CPI, fragile ETF demand, and still-elevated Treasury yields leave a path of least resistance below that strike into year-end even if $80,000 holds as near-term support. This is a dated record call, not investment advice.