10-year yield plunge is the sharpest since 2023 as tech stocks sink
Investors dumped AI-linked shares and piled into U.S. government bonds on Thursday, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield below 5% while the Nasdaq had its worst day since June.
The 10-year yield plunge on Thursday, Oct. 22, was the largest one-day decline in the benchmark since March 2023, CNBC reported. The 10-year Treasury yield slid about 18.5 basis points to 4.961%, while Schwab Network put the close at 4.95%, its lowest finish in more than a month, as traders sold technology shares and bought government debt.
What happened
The move ran along the whole curve. The 2-year yield fell 17.5 basis points and the 30-year yield 15 basis points, according to CNBC. CoinDesk noted during the session that the 10-year had slipped below 5% for the first time in about a month.
Stocks went the other way. The S&P 500 fell 1.2%, its worst session since July, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.6%, its worst since June. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index lost 6.7%, Schwab Network said, with Advanced Micro Devices down 8.1% and Nvidia down 4.4%. The Dow finished slightly higher as money moved into consumer staples, utilities and health care.
Oil did not stop the bond rally. Brent crude jumped 4% to settle at $113.17 a barrel, its highest settle since May, after reports that Washington and Israel were preparing fresh strikes on Iran, CNBC said.
Why it matters
For much of the summer, higher oil meant higher yields. CoinDesk said that link has broken as traders weigh how an energy shock could slow growth, not just lift prices. Fed pricing shifted as well: CME FedWatch odds of a rate hike at next week's meeting fell to 8%, and the chance of no further hike this year rose to 28% from 10%, according to CoinDesk.
Rate-sensitive corners gained. A homebuilder ETF jumped 3.8% and a regional bank ETF rose 2.5%, CNBC reported. Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang told the network there is "a scarcity of capital" in parts of the AI build-out, while Ed Yardeni called the AI trade a "bubble" but said letting some air out would not be bad.
Europe added to demand for safety. France's 10-year yield climbed to about 5.08%, widening its gap over German debt to a 15-year high near 174 basis points, CoinDesk said. The 10-year yield plunge marks a sharp turn from earlier this month, when we covered Treasury yields at their highest since 2002, and it follows the collapse in October Fed hike odds.
What's next
U.S. futures were mixed early Friday and South Korea's Kospi fell 2.42%. SK Hynix said its Solidigm unit would halt an IPO review, citing market conditions, according to CNBC's live market coverage. Traders also await the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading.
On Polymarket, the 10-year yield falling below 4.95% on any day in October was priced at 75% as of 08:29 MSK on Oct. 23. That market settles on the Treasury's daily par yield curve, and the Fed decision lands on Oct. 28.
The call
We call that the 10-year Treasury yield will dip below 4.95% on at least one day in October 2026, using the Treasury's daily par yield curve. Polymarket puts that outcome at 75%. After Thursday's 10-year yield plunge the benchmark sits right at that line with six sessions left, and demand for safety has not faded.
This article is for information only and is not investment advice. Calls are editorial forecasts, logged with market odds at the time of publication and kept on the record.