September jobs report Fed hike odds October 2026

U.S. employers added far fewer jobs than expected in September, and rate-market odds of an October Federal Reserve hike fell sharply. The September jobs report Fed hike odds October 2026 package centers on a 29,000 payroll gain against roughly 90,000 expected and CME FedWatch October hike odds near 22.7%, down from about 64.2% a week earlier.

September payrolls rose by 29,000 against roughly 90,000 expected, and October hike odds fell sharply on CME FedWatch.

What happened

The Labor Department's September nonfarm payrolls print came in at +29,000. Consensus in the secondary accounts used here had been near 90,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%. August payrolls were revised to 133,000 from 162,000, and July was revised to −10,000 from +21,000.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% month over month and 3.0% year over year in the same report package. Soft wage growth alongside soft hiring is the combination markets used to reprice near-term Fed odds.

CME FedWatch October hike probability fell to about 22.7% from 64.2% a week earlier, according to Free Malaysia Today's market wrap. Odds of a hold in October sat in a roughly 80–86% range across Called It has already tracked related Fed commentary in Jefferson on an October rate hike and weekly claims in U.S. jobless claims at 197,000. The September jobs report Fed hike odds October 2026 story links those threads: softer hiring, cooler wage growth, and a sharp drop in October hike probability on FedWatch.

Revisions matter as much as the headline. August's cut from 162,000 to 133,000 and July's swing from +21,000 to −10,000 change the recent path of employment, not only one month's surprise. Readers who quote only +29,000 without the revisions understate how much the Bureau rewrote recent history.

None of these figures is investment advice. They are the published labor print and the futures-implied odds as reported on October 2–3.

What's next

The next scheduled payrolls release and the next FOMC decision will arrive on their published calendars. Materials used here do not invent those dates or outcomes. What they establish for the September jobs report Fed hike odds October 2026 file is +29,000 payrolls, 4.2% unemployment, the August and July revisions, 0.1% / 3.0% average hourly earnings, FedWatch October hike odds near 22.7% (from 64.2% a week earlier), and a hold probability in the roughly 80–86% band.

FedWatch will reprice with every new data print. The soft September report is one input, not the last.the accounts cited. FedWatch probabilities are derived from fed funds futures prices; they are not a vote by the Federal Open Market Committee.

Free Malaysia Today's wrap is here.

Why it matters

Payrolls are the Labor Department's broad count of jobs added or lost outside farming. A miss this large against a ~90,000 consensus usually moves rate odds, equity futures, and the dollar—exactly the sequence described in October 2 market coverage.