Blockchain.com Prediction Markets Bid Seeks Two CFTC Licenses

Blockchain.com prediction markets could come to the United States after the crypto platform told CNBC on Friday, October 9, 2026, that it has applied to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for two licenses covering event contracts and cryptocurrency derivatives. The company wants to serve both retail and institutional customers, CNBC reported.

What happened

Blockchain.com is seeking designation as a designated contract market, which would let it operate as a futures exchange listing event contracts, and registration as a futures commission merchant, which would allow it to act as a broker for derivatives contracts. Together, the approvals would let it run its own regulated U.S. marketplace rather than route customers through partners, according to Decrypt.

"Users should be able to manage their digital assets, trade derivatives, and take positions on real-world events easily, without jumping between different apps," said Peter Smith, chief executive and co-founder of Blockchain.com. "Our DCM and FCM applications build toward that future in the U.S. through the appropriate regulatory frameworks."

The filing marks a shift from partnership to ownership. Rather than relying on Polymarket and Hyperliquid to supply markets and liquidity, a licensed Blockchain.com would list and clear contracts itself and hold customer accounts directly, keeping more of the economics and more of the regulatory responsibility.

The company already offers these products abroad. Earlier this year it began providing prediction markets to some international customers through a partnership with Polymarket, along with perpetual futures powered by Hyperliquid, CNBC said.

Why it matters

The Blockchain.com prediction markets application joins a crowded line. Blockchain.com is one of 12 companies that have filed for DCM licenses this year, and the CFTC has approved six new DCMs in 2026, according to CNBC. The overlap between crypto and prediction markets keeps growing: Crypto.com and Gemini Space Station run their own event-contract marketplaces, Coinbase offers them mainly through a partnership with Kalshi, and Kalshi and Polymarket have launched perpetual futures for U.S. and international customers, respectively.

Part of the appeal of the federal route is jurisdictional. A CFTC license offers a measure of cover from state gambling regulators, who have sued operators including Kalshi and Polymarket, Decrypt noted. That fight is intensifying: the CFTC has moved to formalize its authority over event contracts while a dispute over whether those contracts are federally regulated swaps has reached the Supreme Court.

The economics explain the rush. Prediction markets have moved into the mainstream and trading volumes have risen sharply over the past year, Decrypt said, and analysts at Bernstein have projected the sector could generate billions of dollars in revenue by the end of the decade in what they expect to become a $10 trillion market. Our report on $188 billion in prediction market volume in the third quarter shows how quickly activity has scaled, and our coverage of FCA prediction markets talks shows regulators abroad are also engaging.

The timing coincides with Washington's own moves. On the same day Blockchain.com disclosed its filings, the CFTC published a proposal that would expressly define event contracts based on sports, politics, culture and weather as swaps, with a 30-day comment period, according to the CFTC. For applicants such as Blockchain.com, a federal definition of that kind would strengthen the argument that a DCM license, rather than state gambling approval, is the right permission for event contracts.

Corporate strategy is another factor. Blockchain.com confidentially filed for an initial public offering with the Securities and Exchange Commission in May, and Bloomberg reported last month that it was planning to go public this year at a valuation of $4 billion to $6 billion, CNBC noted. A U.S. derivatives and event-contract business would broaden the story it can tell public investors.

What's next

CFTC review timelines for DCM and FCM applications vary, and Blockchain.com did not give a target date. Approval would let it bring in-house the products it currently offers abroad via third parties. In the meantime, the Blockchain.com prediction markets plan will be shaped by the CFTC's pending event-contract rules and by any Supreme Court action on the state challenges, which together will determine how much protection a federal license really provides.

CNBC disclosed that it has a commercial relationship with Kalshi that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment. This article is for information only and is not investment advice.